The Future

I had recently finished a book, The Next 100 Years, by George Friedman of Stratfor, when I discovered that he was to be one of the keynote speakers at an international conference on futurology in Jakarta.

Some key takeaways of the conference:

• The future will be more extreme – more rich; more poor, more crises in energy, agriculture, climates, politics and financial markets.
• Commercial space exploration – with the Space Shuttle program having just ended, it seemed odd to suggest that the future of space exploration looked bright. But it reminded me of other industries – such as railroads and national infrastructure – where private enterprise steps in only after significant initial government investment
• American dominance  – George Friedman reiterated one of the central points of his book that American military and economic power will continue to shape the 21st century, and largely remain unchallenged and unsurpassed. He also spoke clearly about the future geopolitical role of China and demonstrated that, for all its advances, China remains a highly impoverished and unstable country.

Running Review: 2010

One of my goals in 2009 was simply to start exercising regularly. It didn’t really matter how much but I focused solely on how often; I made a committement to hit the gym at least three times per week. I did.

One of my goals for 2010 was to record all my gym sessions in a journal. If it matters, measure it, right?

After reviewing my running journal for the entire year, here are some keys I’ve learnt:

• Gym location is essential. Convenience counts. Making time to make it part of my everyday routine helps the rest fall into place;
• I prefer to go more often with shorter sessions;
• I really like running. Sure, I keep some weight lifting in the mix but I usually head to the gym after my working day and nothing quite clears my mind better than just flat out running;

In 2010 I ran 555.35 km, averaging 5.76km per session. I know this isn’t great. But for my first full year of running, I’m feeling good and I’m not bored with it. My goals for 2011 are to run for longer, use different types of runs, and to use more strength training.

Running & Reading

This isn’t exactly new, nor do I usually take advice from Will Smith, but I do think he’s spot on with this.

World Bank Data Visualizer

The World Bank Data Visualizer is just awesome.

Choose what you want – make sure to hit play – and let the story unfold.

Though, it’s not quite the same without the narration of Hans Rosling.

Maps and Storytelling

Lately I’ve been browsing more and more maps, and been intrigued by all forms of data visualization (and presentations) in order to tell a story.

One of my very early and most well-remembered teachers of history taught that before studying anyone’s history, you must first learn their geography. Start with the map.

The land offers insight into the thinking of its’ inhabitants – see Japan for example – and the ratio of coastline to landmass is usually revealing. Europe’s long, twisting coastline in comparison to Africa’s relatively short coastline for such a large continent foreshadows much of their past thousand years of history.

One of my favorite blogs is Strange Maps (whose author recently published a book) which is a playful look into how we see the world and how the world shapes us. My favorites include the United States depicted by proximity to a McDonald’s, and the Patients per Doctor Map of the World. And of course, the often circulated United States of Canada.

These maps help us think in unusual ways about seeing the world, and even understanding the basic (but hidden) facts of the world around us.

Hans Rosling’s “Debunking Myths about the Third World,” is not a map per say, but is one of the best visual representations of the development of nations over time. I’ve watched it many times over. Many theses have been written on development theory but Rosling tells the story better than anyone. And getting people to pay attention (and make sense of the data) is as crucial as anything.

Dear SBY re: Terrorism Strategy

Dear SBY:

You got re-elected. Noordin Top is dead. And terrorism in Indonesia has faded from the headlines. After the first half of this decade, Indonesian intelligence co-opted terrorist groups and brought them into the conversation. After multiple bombings earlier this decade, July 2009 was the first attack in five years. While you may consider that your anti-terrorism strategy needs a rethink, I’d advise against it. Here’s why:

The costs of preventing terrorism are increasing while the costs of committing an act of terrorism are decreasing

Security guards and surveillance are expensive but bombs aren’t. You can’t compete with terrorists on cost, as your sensitivity will continue to be higher than your attackers and is trending against you. No military budget will solve this problem alone.

Terrorism is pursued out of desperation and lack of choice

You need to continue to show leadership. If they feel they have no options, it’s your responsibility to show them options. Offer compassion and toughness. Offer wisdom and choices.

Choice forces responsibility. Attacks come from helplessness and desperation. Offer another path to empowerment, and many will take it.

An attack usually means you’re winning

The more popular your idea becomes, the more it will be criticized.

Front-runners get attacked. Popular ideas get attacked. As Seth Godin puts it, “Ideas that spread, win.” The idea of a modern and moderate Indonesia is spreading. Take heart.

Terrorism does not challenge a person, a party or a state. It challenges a system

An ideology that legitimizes acts of violence no longer sees the world in terms of win-win. They see win-lose. They don’t want to play the game anymore; they want to change it.

Your goal must be to get them back into the system. To give them a stake: to offer them something to believe in and something to lose.

Engagement and bringing them deeper into the conversation (highlighted by a few targeted take-downs like Noordin Top) will continue to yield positive results.

Good luck.

“This is a Lebaran gift for the people of Indonesia”

Terrorism is not new and it was certainly not a twenty-first century invention.

Our collective reactions to acts of terrorism are, in part, what defines the success of the terrorist act itself. Often, we don’t do too well.

The Indonesian anti-terrorism squad killed  Noordin Top, the most wanted terrorist in Indonesia last Thursday.

This was an effective response to an act of terrorism. The Indonesian government near seamlessly controlled the messaging of this raid to prevent it from being tied-in to broad themes of religion,  Islam, the West or even nationalism (Noordin Top is Malaysian-born). This was a personalized campaign on the specific target of Noordin Top himself, and even led to the Chairman of the Indonesian Ulema Council (MUI) offering the quoted title of this post.

This is what the Bush administration failed to do after September 11, 2001. Instead of focusing on the precise and criminal personality of Osama Bin Laden, Bush expanded to scope of the retaliation into two full-blown hot wars and a global debate over what America means to the world. The messaging was lost over what this was really all about.

The praise of the Indonesian government, and even the police, is well deserved and promising.

By controlling the message, Noordin Top is not remembered as a martyr but as a crook and a murderer.

7.0

I remember distinctly where I was on September 11, 2001. I remember where I was on October 12, 2002. I remember where I was on December 26, 2004. I remember where I was on July 17, 2009. And I will also remember where I was on September 2, 2009.

I was on the 12th floor of my office tower. Writing emails. My stomach rose and people giggled as we realized the earth was shifting beneath us, the same feeling you get on an amusement ride. A large crack/noise/bang sent every eye in the room darting to each others, and without thinking, we were in the stairwell. The giggling stopped.

The shaking of the tower was enough to prevent one from walking quickly down the stairs. It wasn’t just a dizzying feeling, or a mild disorientation, but a see saw back and forth, back and forth, back and forth.

I vividly remember counting the floor numbers as we moved down. Eleven. Ten. Nine. By now so many people had entered the emergency stairwell that we were barely walking anymore. A women had fainted on the floor.  Eight. Seven. Six. A few women were crying. Five. Three. I remember being glad that the Chinese never build fourth floors.

Outside, people were giggling again.

If I were CEO of Air Canada…..

……..I would require every employee to travel at least four times a year.

I’ve heard that their employees get amazing deals on flights, including free fares. I have also heard that a remarkably large number of employees never exercise these benefits. For a company in the travel industry, this just isn’t right. Their employees need to be expert travelers, and I’ve flown Air Canada enough to realize they simply aren’t.

Their staff need a deep experience base in what they do. I know I can buy cheaper airline tickets online, but I like hearing from my travel agent who has traveled to 60 countries. I get information and advice that I simply wouldn’t anywhere else.

Airline staff could help by offering their knowledge to passengers, and this knowledge really only comes through experience. Travelers face an absolute labyrinth of mind-boggling rules, regulations, and requirements across jurisdictions that never seem to be standardized. And yet – nothing. I’m constantly told I can’t do things that I can, and that I can do things I can’t.

Talk to me when I check in about where I’m going. Well-traveled airline staff could connect with me about places, people and experiences in ways that would etch you brand into my mind sharper than all the ads your marketing budget could buy. Believe me – travelers love to talk about their travels. Just ask a few questions.

More than anything, travel experience would bring a greater sense of empathy to their customer relations. When I tell you that your flight is delayed, it would help if, I too, knew what that felt like.

Teeth! I see teeth!

Forget the jilbab.

The most noticeable change in the way candidates presented themselves during the recent Indonesian presidential campaign wasn’t necessarily with the wives, but with the men. After most Indonesian candidates in the previous legislative election presented their public face in true Javanese and reserved tradition, 2009 was a watershed moment in terms of how campaigns communicated publicly, positioned themselves in the media, adapted new technologies to spread their ideas and used images to tell their stories.

I’d written previously about the images of legislative candidates. Now check out the official sites of SBY and Megawati. They’re flash. They’re on Facebook. They photos are telling me something about them – immediately.

And they’re finally smiling in all their campaign posters.