Dear SBY:
You got re-elected. Noordin Top is dead. And terrorism in Indonesia has faded from the headlines. After the first half of this decade, Indonesian intelligence co-opted terrorist groups and brought them into the conversation. After multiple bombings earlier this decade, July 2009 was the first attack in five years. While you may consider that your anti-terrorism strategy needs a rethink, I’d advise against it. Here’s why:
The costs of preventing terrorism are increasing while the costs of committing an act of terrorism are decreasing
Security guards and surveillance are expensive but bombs aren’t. You can’t compete with terrorists on cost, as your sensitivity will continue to be higher than your attackers and is trending against you. No military budget will solve this problem alone.
Terrorism is pursued out of desperation and lack of choice
You need to continue to show leadership. If they feel they have no options, it’s your responsibility to show them options. Offer compassion and toughness. Offer wisdom and choices.
Choice forces responsibility. Attacks come from helplessness and desperation. Offer another path to empowerment, and many will take it.
An attack usually means you’re winning
The more popular your idea becomes, the more it will be criticized.
Front-runners get attacked. Popular ideas get attacked. As Seth Godin puts it, “Ideas that spread, win.” The idea of a modern and moderate Indonesia is spreading. Take heart.
Terrorism does not challenge a person, a party or a state. It challenges a system
An ideology that legitimizes acts of violence no longer sees the world in terms of win-win. They see win-lose. They don’t want to play the game anymore; they want to change it.
Your goal must be to get them back into the system. To give them a stake: to offer them something to believe in and something to lose.
Engagement and bringing them deeper into the conversation (highlighted by a few targeted take-downs like Noordin Top) will continue to yield positive results.
Good luck.
